This is worth reading. The writer is not a medical expert but understands exponents and is watching the data.
This virus is not being spread the way we’re told. Social distancing is close to worthless. NY’s data makes this quite clear. So does Florida’s. It’s being spread in the medical environment — specifically, in the hospitals — not, in the main, on the beach or in the bar. When Singapore and South Korea figured out that if as a medical provider you wash your damn hands before and after, without exception, every potential contact with an infected person or surface even if you didn’t have a mask on for 30 minutes during casual conversations with others … transmission to and between their medical providers stopped. … And guess what immediately happened after that? Their national case rate stabilized and fell. The hypothesis that fits the facts is that a material part of transmission is actually happening in the hospital with the medical providers spreading it through the community both directly and indirectly.Hypothesis: Hospitals ARE the Vector @RealDonaldTrump
The step functions in the data here in the United States cannot be explained by ordinary community transmission but they are completely explained if the transmission is happening not among ordinary casual contact — that is, not “social distancing”, but rather through the medical system itself. That explains the step functions that are seen in places like Florida since it takes several days before you seek medical attention after infection and it also explains why NY, despite locking down the city and more than one viral generation time passing — in fact two — has seen no material decrease at all in their transmission rate.
In addition it further is supported by the fact that what we’ve seen here, in Italy, in Wuhan — indeed everywhere is not an exponential curve. It’s a step-function flat acceleration graph. Broad community transmission doesn’t happen this way (you instead get a straight and continual exponential expansion until you start to obtain suppression via herd immunity) but if the spread happens as each “generation” gets driven to hospitals for testing and medical attention and the spread is largely happening there what we see here and in other nations in the case rate data is exactly the function you produce in terms of exposure rates. In other words there should be no straight-line sections in the case rate graphs — but there are.Hypothesis: Hospitals ARE the Vector @RealDonaldTrump
In other words, the “lockdowns” are not doing anything much in terms of suppression, but they are ruining small businesses, many of them irreversibly.
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