the risk is … to the whole society, yet the solution depends not on society but on the individual.”

UPDATE: Armageddon ou Foutaise? Dr. Ph. Devos

Japan confirmed cases = 839 (not including the cruise ship “Diamond Princess”), just over half of the UK numbers (1,395) and 15% of France’s (5,437) (from Johns Hopkins )

Multilingual Hotlines have been set up in Japan for the major non-Japanese populations.

The Japan Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare website shows a slight decrease in the number of new cases since March 10th, but there was a similar drop the previous week, and it spiked up again on March 10th. (I notice there are just 5 columns per week. Wait. Is that Mon-Fri? The website today Monday March 16th are for March 13th, so we’ll have to wait until they process the weekend numbers.)

UPDATE: The website numbers are out of date.

Health authorities in Japan reported 63 new cases of coronavirus infection on Saturday — the highest daily increase excluding those linked to the cruise ship Diamond Princess.

The officials say the number of cases confirmed in the country reached 773 on Saturday.

The figure does not include 697 people from the US-operated cruise ship or 14 others who returned on chartered flights from China.

Another death was reported on Saturday, raising the tally to 22 in Japan and 7 others from the cruise liner.

Japan sees record daily new coronavirus cases

Japan Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare 16 March 2020

but the number of cumulative cases continues to rise.

Japan Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare 16 March 2020

There are a number of live streams of updated data on YouTube. This one says ” The numbers on screen is based on combination of government announcement and news media”, so the usual caveat applies: do your own research.

This is not Armageddon or the end of humanity, the Apocalypse or any other doomsday prediction. As this Belgian doctor wrote, “We’re not all going to die. In the worst-case scenario, 0.4% of the Belgian population will die, the great majority of which will be among those over 80. Stop the madness already!”

Nous n’allons pas tous mourir : dans le pire scenario, 0,4% des Belges mourront, en large majorité dans les plus de 80 ans. Arrêtez la psychose. 

UPDATE: Armageddon ou Foutaise? Dr. Ph. Devos

He updated on March 8th with this, which I think is sensible (my rough translation): “I hope to convince the country to try and limit the infections to 500 per million inhabitants. To achieve this, individual behaviour will be more effective than mass measures. It may be difficult for some to remain quietly at home when they get a slight fever; some may find it difficult to wash their hands at least 5 times a day, and some cannot imagine not shaking hands with anyone. And yet it can be done. And if we do not do these things, we will be forcing the government to take drastic measure such as we see in Lombardy (N. Italy). I ask everyone to consider their personal responsibility: the risk is not merely to individuals but to whole the society, yet the solution depends not on society but on the individual.”

Je préfère pour ma part agir en amont et convaincre la population pour tenter de ne pas atteindre les 500 contaminés par millions d’habitants. Pour cela le comportement individuel sera plus déterminant que les mesures de masse. Rester cloîtré chez soi alors qu’on fait une petite fièvre sera difficilement acceptable pour de nombreuses personnes. Se laver les mains plus de 5 fois par jour sera également difficile pour beaucoup. Même ne plus serrer une main semble inconcevable pour certains. Pourtant cela peut marcher. Et si on ne le fait pas, on obligera le gouvernement à prendre des mesures drastiques telles que celle que l’on voit en Lombardie. Je demande à chacun de réfléchir à la responsabilité qu’il veut porter : le danger n’est pas au niveau de l’individu, il est collectif. Par contre le gros de la solution n’est pas collective, elle est individuelle. 

UPDATE: Armageddon ou Foutaise? Dr. Ph. Devos