Searching for Accurate Maps

24hGold shows the price of various precious metals, together with articles on the same subject, and a small square in the top right-hand corner which shows a  randomly selected relevant quotation. Today’s:

If any question why we died,
Tell them, because our fathers lied.

(from “Epitaphs of War, 1914-18″, first published in The Years Between 1919.

This sentiment is uncharacteristic of Kipling, and probably would not have entered his heart, were it not for the death in World War I (at Loos) of his only son, Jack, f This death inspired Kipling to write the poem “My Boy Jack“, later turned into a stage-play then into a movie (starring Daniel Radcliffe as Jack). The stage-play and the movie were written and the main role of Kipling acted by David Haig.

It may surprise some to see this anti-war sentiment on a website devoted to the trading of precious metals, but there is a connection. What is the connection? The present interest in gold is being strongly influenced by a growing number of people who are losing their trust and faith in central government, in particular in central government’s currency – fiat currency, promissory notes not backed by gold or anything. Some who have studied the history of currency, money and central banking state that the abandonment of a gold standard allows governments to create more debt, to grow in power, and that in addition, the growth of state power is closely (some say inextricably) linked with war. The historian Randolph Bourne wrote, “War is the health of the state*”, and other libertarians since have corroborated that view, including Murray Rothbard and Robert Higgs.

Historian and Austrian economist Gary North writes that many people are confused by the media’s pronouncements on gold, inflation and deflation:

If called upon to outline the arguments of each position, they could not do it. They have no idea of what they have read. They are utterly confused. Why? Because they do not read books on economics. They read only websites.

I was one of “they”: I read only websites. I was trying to educate myself about finance, investing and economics. I wasted a lot of time. I eventually discovered the 3 books that Gary North recommends:

If you are confused, you can get clear by reading three short items: Rothbard’s mini-book, What Has Government Done to Our Money?, my mini-book, Mises on Money, and Rothbard’s The Case Against the Fed. All of them are free.

If you really want to understand, read Rothbard’s textbook on money and banking, The Mystery of Banking. It is free.

Then you will be ready for the booklet published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Modern Money Mechanics. I have posted it here.

Not all the 24hGold quotes are this serious. Here’s another, for example: ” Liquidity equals stupidity.”

(*See Randolph Bourne, “Unfinished Fragment on the State,” in Untimely Papers (New York: B.W: Huebsch, 1919).)

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So says a report from major French bank, Société Générale , as reported by Tellygraph reporter Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. (Trivia: typing “Evans-Pritchard” into the Wikipedia search box brought up Ambrose’s father, who was born in the Sussex village I grew up in.)

Ambrose’s article was brought to my attention by economist/historian Gary North, in an article titled “A Major European Bank Issues Investment Guidelines for a Worst-Case Scenario.” North adds: “I do not recall a headline like this in my lifetime. Not from a major international bank. Is the author exaggerating?”

North continues:

“As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped the prospect of a global economic collapse,” said the 68-page report, headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of the dangers, not a forecast.Under the French bank’s “Bear Case” scenario (the gloomiest of three possible outcomes), the dollar would slide further and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010.

OK, it’s pretty bad. But if this is the worst-case scenario, I feel relieved.

Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade.

That’s where we are headed, with or without a major crisis in the next two years. Investors have shrugged it off.

The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. “High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt,” it said.

This is all true. We are way beyond the point of no return. Investors have shrugged it off.

Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.If so, gold would go “up, and up, and up” as the only safe haven from fiat paper money.

If this is a direct quotation — up, up, and up — it’s like nothing I have seen in a bank report. It’s true.

Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate stabilises at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will still take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980s.

It will not be used to pay down debt. It never is.

I have a question about this part of the Evans-Pritchard article:

In a report entitled “Worst-case debt scenario”, the bank’s asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems.

Where were the journalists at the time, screaming this fact, which the bankers knew, to the public?

(The graphic that accompanies this text was suggested to me by my WordPress plugin, Zemanta. I chose it because of the album’s title: “Worst case scenario” and because the band’s name, Hoosiers, is the same as a highly acclaimed basketball movie, starring Gene Hackman, which I saw for the first time recently and which I may write about shortly.)

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(From Keats’ “Ode to a Nightingale”)

We arrived in our mountain retreat and, after unsaddling our horses and leaving them in the capable hands of the stable-boy, I went with the butler to the wine-cellars and picked out a bottle of the blushful Hippocrene, which I then opened, and poured out a well-earned glass for my wife and myself.

This article by Eric Pfanner tells those who have been paying attention to mainstream media like the newspapers as well as to future trends such as online news, some things that they already know. This is to be expected. After all, the article appeared in the New York Times (I don’t know where it appeared first; I’m not that good of an Internet sleuth. If you find that out, please let me know in the comments.):

1. that publishers of old-style, paper and ink newspapers are having an increasingly difficult job staying out of the red;
2. that web versions of anything, be it newspapers or online textbooks, need to add a little something to exploit the online medium and technology, not just put online the same exact content as the paper and ink newspaper (duh!).

The Web site was enhanced with faster, more thorough coverage of local events. A social networking area of the site was developed, and the paper now solicits articles from its members— about their clubs, church groups and other Fredrikstad institutions, for example.

Some of the material on the site veers beyond traditional newspaper content.

Local moviemakers, for example, have provided short fictional films that are included in a video section.

‘‘Online newspapers have to be something very different from print,’’ said David Montgomery, chief executive of Mecom, the London-based company that acquired Edda four years ago.

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Ouch! About 2 minutes into this video interview with a “left-of-centre environmentalist”, he says the following:

You have this army of university scientists, and they have to pretend like they’re doing important research, without ever criticizing powerful interests in a real way. So, what do they look for? They look for elusive, sanitized things, like acid rain, global warming… It helps to neutralize any kind of dissent.

I’m not interested in arguing (here) about AGW, but I work at a university, full-time, and have done for a long time, and, what can I say? This describes a lot of people I know. In fact, I’ll go further, and say that I don’t know who are criticizing powerful interests, with one possible exception (and he was doing research into John Foster Dulles and other dead white males).

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What is so great about individualism?

I teach two populations who have quite a long history of collectivism: Chinese and Japanese.
OK, the Chinese also have a history of personal entrepreneurship.

In an English media class, we read a recent article about the latest scandal surrounding the Japanese Sumo Association. This concerns “illegal gambling“. What is “illlegal gambling”, I asked my students. “Gambling which is not permitted”, they answered.

“Yes,” (through clenched teeth), “but why is it not permitted?” No answer.

Gambling is not permitted in China, except in certain areas, we learned from our Chinese students today.

I briefly explained the concept of “victimless crime“. However, from a collectivist standpoint, there is no issue: the government has decided that certain activities are out of bounds (illegal) and that is that. How do I counter that?

Libertarian Laurence Vance comments that “illegal gambling” is “gambling in which the state doesn’t get a cut”.

My question is, why is the State deciding what individuals can and cannot do, wrong?

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Cameron Herold didn’t do well in school. Fortunately, his dad knew what to do about that.

I’m thoroughly enjoying the biography of C.S. Lewis by Roger Lancelyn Green and Walter Hooper. I’ve been reading as much of Lewis’ as I can recently, starting with re-reading all the Narnian stories (I’m teaching two of them this year), and then reading some of his literary essays and lectures, followed by Till We Have Faces, The Pilgrim’s Regress, The Divorce of Heaven and Earth, and most recently the fascinating science-fiction trilogy. I vaguely recall reading one of them before, but this time the impression I got was deep and strong. Perelandra is a knock-out, and I hesitated to read the 3rd in the trilogy, That Hideous Strength, as I was sure it could not be better than Perelandra. I was wrong, though Perelandra outdoes it for sheer beauty.

I’ve been particularly interested in Lewis’ thoughts on fairy-stories, and am now reading the seminal essay on this subject by J.R.R. Tolkien.

Lewis led me to his mentor, George Macdonald. I started with Macdonald’s fairy-tales and was impressed. “The Complete Fairy Tales” (a misnomer: it is far from complete; it does not include “The Princess and the Goblin” or “The Princess and Curdie” or “Lilith” or “Phantastes”, for example) includes one of the most perfect short stories I’ve read in a long time: Photogen and Nycteris.

Update: Derbyshire’s homepage at Taki magazine includes links to some of my favourite libertarians/Austrian economists, such as Tom Woods, Karen de Coste, Peter Schiff, Justin Raimondo and Paul Gottfried (OK, I’m not sure Gottfried is a libertarian and he’s probably not an Austrian economist, but I like what he writes update: but he is a fan of HL Mencken), soDerbyshire’s not all bad. However, reading his posts just reminds me of why I’m not a conservative.

John Derbyshire writes and speaks well: imaginatively, highly knowledgeably, and with sarcastic humour. He’s been in my Google Reader for, oh, at least 2 months (a long time by my standards). I’ve learned much about good writing from reading his columns and something about how to put together an amusing and informative radio show. I also was interested in his report on how he put all his “attic stuff” online. But even though he is a fellow British expatriate, after reading his latest radio show transcript and one of his recent opinion columns, out he goes. I’m sure he will be mortified, and he may well write to me to beg to be re-instated, but I am adamant (although, perhaps, for a large fee…)

The first reason is his attempt to be humorous at the expense of the nine people murdered by the Defense Force of a certain Middle East nation. Don’t get me wrong: I’m no bleeding-heart liberal; indeed, Derbyshire’s no-nonsense conservatism was one of the things that attracted me about his writing. Derbyshire unerringly nails the false perceptions and phony values that mislead a lot of perhaps otherwise well-meaning folk:

1. warm feelings about helping colorful third-world peasants escape from colonial oppression;
2. The boats were filled with peace activists wearing beads and sandals, singing Pete Seeger songs and scattering rose petals on the waters of the Mediterranean as they went. Their mission was to bring much-needed food and medicine to the poor, peace-loving souls in the Gaza Strip;
3. This Atrocity aroused the indignation of that mighty power for justice, liberty, and truth — the international community. Wherever in the world there is a hungry child, an anxious mother, a helpless invalid, or a victim of injustice, the international community will soon be on hand to cool the fevered brow, apply balm to the wounds, wipe away the little child’s tears, murmur words of gentle encouragement, and bring relief to the oppressed.

Derbyshire’s response is basically to completely exonerate the murderers, asking rhetorically if they are not to be permitted to defend themselves. I just found his response too pat, the repetition of the old conservative bromides too predictable. His complete exoneration of the murders seemed to me to reveal a harsh set of values which I do not share.

the poor, peace-loving souls in the Gaza Strip, who have been languishing in sickness and hunger since the cruel Israelis, for no reason but sheer malice, imposed a blockade on the place three years ago.

“For no reason but sheer malice” is clearly false; however, is the implied opposite therefore necessarily true? In addition, I thought this comment by libertarian Gary North more to the point:

The State of Israel has suffered its worst setback in public relations in my lifetime. I can recall nothing even remotely close. The PR disaster has barely begun to unfold.

The person who planned the Turkish resistance took a page out of Saul Alinsky‘s Rules for Radicals (1972). The overarching principle of Alinsky’s system is this: the action is the reaction.

The goal is to provoke a response that embarrasses the target. Alinsky recommended nonviolence. His model was Gandhi. But violence can be effective, too. Mild violence is implemented in order to gain a more powerful response, one that seems to be overkill.

I have studied his tactics for almost 40 years. I first wrote about them in 1983. I posted an article on this in March. http://www.garynorth.com/public/6274.cfm

The six ships that sailed for Gaza were tests. They were opportunities for a confrontation. That is a basic plan of action for Alinsky. If there is no resistance, this displays weakness. It undermines the will to resist. If there is resistance, the plan works if this resistance is seen by the public as excessive.

He goes on to list 9 actions which would have in all probability avoided bloodshed and, in the writer’s opinion, more importantly avoided falling into the “Alinsky trap”. (The article is only available to members.)

The second reason is another of Derbyshire’s values:

Living processes, presumably including those that comprise human thought and feeling, are complicated chemical reactions…. Biologists have known this stuff for a long time, but most nonspecialists have been reading only the first bit of Hamlet’s address: “What a piece of work is a man!” A few more revelations about our species’ jumbled, chaotic deep history, and we shall be in the “quintessence of dust” camp, where man delights not us.

Yawn. “We’re just a bunch of chemicals.” I thought Ayn Rand had dealt with that one pretty effectively, e.g. in Atlas Shrugged

Related articles

• Libertarianism, Conservatism, and All That (mises.org)
• “Capitalism” Forever (mises.org)
• Myth and Truth About Libertarianism, by Murray Rothbard (mises.org)
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• “Times Change, Principles Don’t”, by Lew Rockwell (mises.org)

I see foot and mouth has raised its ugly head again, this time in Japan.
(Note the fear-inducing picture of the  men in hazmat suits.)

I’m British, and have lived through at least 2 foot-and-mouth scares, but it was a chance remark in an old interview I was reading that alerted me to the possibility that it might all be a scam. Now I’m wondering what the hell is in this vaccine they’re giving them, and can I avoid buying and eating any and all such vaccinated beef?

How’s this for insanity: “According to the farm ministry, about 160,000 cows and pigs will receive vaccination. It is the first time that vaccinations have been given in Japan, but all the animals will be killed anyway.” Say what?
So they vaccinate them, then kill them. OK, perhaps it’s because the vaccination will stop the disease stone dead and prevent further infection while they slaughterers are doing their grisly work. However, in another article we read

Use of a vaccine would not completely prevent infections, but if an animal were infected, emission of the virus could be controlled to a certain degree. Since the spread of infections would slow down, the number of animals that would need to be slaughtered would decrease, thus buying more time.

And in yet another article, we read  that “buying more time” is a little inaccurate:

Juan Lubroth, chief veterinary officer of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, said Tuesday … domesticated animals should be destroyed, even if they are not confirmed to be infected, if they have had certain contact with infected animals, as once the virus spreads outside the prefecture it would be beyond the authorities’ control.

Heck, yeah, why stop at slaughtering only infected animals!
There has been some resistance amongst farmers, but it seems (according to the press) to be only about how much compensation they will get.

Only one article mentioned infringed property rights:

Slaughtering all livestock would affect the property rights of farmers, but under the Domestic Animal Infectious Diseases Control Law, no compensation is provided for preventive culling of livestock that are not infected. Accordingly, the government will consider revising the law.

Under pressure from outraged farmers, the government did in fact change course: Government to give full compensation for foot-and-mouth disease losses.

In none of the articles did I find any mention of what kind of disease this is, how serious it is and why such drastic action needs to be taken, action that will likely devastate hundreds of families and businesses. No satisfactory explanation has been given of why so many animals must be vaccinated, given that vaccination has not been carried out before, and that, according to the article above, the vaccination does not prevent the disease. On television, I just caught a minute of an interview with an “expert” who “explained” the reason the vaccinations must be given is to prevent or pre-empt bans on trade by the United Nations.

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